2016 domestic medical and health industry investment wind direction forecast (on)
Recently, Yikai Capital released a research report on 2016 medical and health industry investment. The report provides a detailed analysis of the current developments and trends of domestic insurance, medical equipment, medicine, Internet medical and other industries. The most essential part of the arterial network is selected. The excerpts have been given a certain reference value for companies that are about to deploy these industries.
With China gradually entering an aging society, China's medical and health industry has developed into a market of nearly 4 trillion. This market has maintained a compound annual growth rate of more than 20% in the past five years, and it is expected to double its size to 8 trillion in the next five years, close to 10% of China's GDP. Today's China's health care industry is in the most dramatic period of change in history. Under such a background, China's health industry will usher in a historic opportunity of rapid development. It is bound to create an industry giant that can influence the BAT of the society and the general public.
The report predicts that 2016 capital will focus on the following areas of China's healthcare industry:
- Medical service market
- Medical technology and medical device market
- Medicine and biotechnology market
- Internet medical market
- Precision medical market
The first part is mainly to analyze the industry trends and investment opportunities in the medical service market, medical technology and medical device market, and pharmaceutical and biotechnology market.
First, the medical service market industry trends
Medical services generally include services such as prevention, diagnosis, treatment and rehabilitation provided by various medical institutions for patients. The annual outpatient volume of nearly 8 billion people in China has spawned a 3 trillion medical service market. With the accelerated aging of the population, the evolution of disease spectrum, the increase in social security coverage and the increase in per capita disposable income, the future of this market It will grow to 6 trillion in five years.
In the past decade, the solution to the payment of medical expenses has become a direct driving force for the growth of China's medical service industry, and it has also promoted the transformation of medical service providers. In the next few years, China's medical service industry will present many new and structural changes:
1. In addition to further improving the coverage of social insurance and the level of fundraising, the measures to solve the problem of payment of medical expenses will start from the perspective of improving the efficiency of fund use; medical insurance control fees will become the norm, and the business model that is highly dependent on medical insurance will Will be greatly affected.
Although commercial insurance will continue to expand, social security will remain the most important payer. In the past fifteen years, China's medical insurance coverage has increased significantly, from 20% in 2000 to 95% in 2015, basically achieving universal coverage. In particular, in the past five years, the speed of medical insurance coverage has increased the fastest, which has also promoted the rapid growth of the entire medical industry .
At the same time, due to the disconnection between the medical service provider and the medical expense payer, all medical industry participants, such as pharmaceutical companies, medical equipment vendors, patients, etc., stand side by side with the medical service provider and jointly fight against the payer to make payment. The party faces the edge of “bankruptcyâ€. According to statistics, there are more than 200 workers' medical insurance funds in the country's co-ordination areas, which account for one-third of the nation's urban workers' co-ordination areas, and more than 20 of them have all accumulated their accumulated balances over the years. In terms of residents' medical insurance, there are more than 100 co-ordination areas in the country that have not received any payments, including Beijing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Tianjin and other economically developed areas.
The country will continue to increase the funding of medical insurance and increase coverage, especially in the case of major medical insurance, but the overall speed will be much lower than in previous years, and will focus on improving the efficiency of medical insurance. From the current level of state control of health insurance expenditures, the mandatory implementation of grading diagnosis and treatment and the quota arrangement for medical insurance use will be the most important measures. The reform of payment models such as disease-based payment (DRGs) is difficult to implement on a large scale in the short term.
Although commercial insurance has always been highly anticipated, it hopes to become another force to solve the payment problem, but in the short term, there is still no obvious hope. As the largest "insurance company" in China, social security has always controlled China's most extensive insured personnel, and through the national administrative lever to ensure that it receives a steady stream of premiums. In China, the payment of social security is not only a matter of payment for medical expenses, but also a mandatory law. Citizens pay social security as a prerequisite for their participation in various economic activities. Therefore, under the social security system in which citizens do not have the freedom to choose, commercial insurance can only compete in the insurance category if it wants to obtain more insured customers. The lack of medical data will be a big obstacle; Insurance products such as insurance, health insurance, and long-term care insurance have been slow. How to protect the social security business may be a breakthrough point.
2. Due to pressure from the payer, the various medical institutions that are providers of medical services will be redefined, and the functions of medical institutions at all levels will have a clearer division of labor. Changes in the pattern of medical service providers will fundamentally affect the patient's medical habits, and the patient's flow will also be greatly changed. A business model that adapts to this change will be favored by the market and vice versa.
In the past ten years, the Chinese government has invested heavily in building a huge medical infrastructure system, such as having nearly 1 million medical institutions at all levels and cultivating nearly 10 million medical personnel. In terms of quantity, China's medical resources do not have serious imbalances between supply and demand. However, these infrastructure systems exist in isolated forms, and their respective functions and functions are misplaced. Therefore, there is a serious structural imbalance between supply and demand.
Subject to the pressure from the financial and people's livelihood needs, the service structure of medical service providers will undergo major changes. Graded medical treatments that have been mentioned for more than ten years will be more substantively promoted and implemented. Graded medical institutions and primary medical institutions will return to their respective functions. The huge medical assets built by the Chinese government will be activated again. The service efficiency of the public health care system will be improved and more will return to basic medical services.
Xi'an XJeson Biotech Co., Ltd , https://www.xjesonbio.com