The macroeconomic impact at home and abroad affected the soybean meal market

Recent macroeconomic prospects at home and abroad are unclear and policy risks have increased. The soybean meal market is expected to be affected. In general, soybean meal futures and spot trends require further guidance on domestic and foreign economic policies.

In December, soybean meal basically stabilized after a slight rebound at the beginning of the month. In the medium term, the main 1109 contract has been operating for about three weeks from 3155 to 3300. The soybean oil with the soybean crushing product gradually increased after the bottom stabilized, successively broke through the 10th and 20th moving averages and reentered the platform near 9800 points. According to the analysis, the current domestic soybean meal market is mainly affected by the following factors:

First, demand gradually declined to suppress the price trend. As the main raw material for feed, soybean meal has a close relationship with the pig breeding industry. However, as CPI continues to rise, pork price, which is the main weight component of CPI, has become an important goal of the country's macro-control. The price of live pigs has basically dropped from around RMB 14.3/kg in mid-November to about RMB 13.8/kg, which has a certain inhibitory effect on the enthusiasm of hog farmers; at the same time, the foot-and-mouth epidemic began to spread in Henan and other regions. Farmers reduce the potential losses by killing pigs. Therefore, under the condition that the downstream industry is not booming, soybean meal prices lack the driving force for demand.

Second, the soybean meal price is supported by foreign supplies. At this stage, the price of locally produced soybeans is basically stable, and at the same time, the effect of national stockpiling on December 3 is not satisfactory, indicating that domestic soybean stocks are not tight. However, the overseas arrival price is still above 4,000 yuan/ton, even exceeding the previous month's futures contract. In addition, in the United States and other parts of the world, soybean meal prices are still able to maintain a relatively high price.

Again, soybean crushers have no intention of raising the spot price of soybean meal. Under the circumstances of cost promotion, soybean meal and soybean oil face different demands. Holidays are approaching, soybean oil consumption is relatively strong, and soybean meal demand is relatively weak. Therefore, crushing companies can reduce the cost pressure brought by soybean price increase by raising the price of soybean oil, and it is more difficult to deliberately raise the price of soybean meal which is relatively sluggish.

Finally, will the dollar continue to weaken. As the pricing object of international bulk commodities, the strength of the US dollar directly affects the trend of soybean meal and soybean prices in the United States, which indirectly affects the domestic market. Under the circumstances of the slow economic recovery in the United States, the possibility of continuing to expand the second quantitative easing or to implement the third quantitative easing exists. Therefore, the US dollar's decline is expected to promote the growth of the outer disk index and drive the further increase of domestic commodity prices.