Pig prices will continue to rise slightly

The price of pigs: The average price of pigs slaughtered nationwide recently (the average price of lean, good and terrible pigs) rose from 16.14 yuan/kg to 16.31 yuan/kg, up 22.82% year-on-year. Lean pigs ranged from 16.54 yuan/kg to 16.7 yuan/kg, and the number of good-quality pigs rose from 16.05 yuan/kg last week to 16.21 yuan/kg, and that of pigs from 15.82 yuan/kg to 16.01 yuan/kg. The average price of piglets nationwide ranges from 25.55 yuan/kg to 27.11 yuan/kg, up 64.9% from 16.44 yuan/kg in the same period of last year, and the price of Sanyuan piglets ranges from 27.78 yuan/kg to 29.44 yuan/kg. The price of good-quality piglets from last week 23.31 yuan/kg to 24.78 yuan/kg, up 53.57% and 80.74% respectively. The reserve dual sow price reached 1647 yuan per head, up 10.97% year-on-year.

7 days of the week pig price trend: Stabilization is about to rise

The national hog market continues to rise this week. The average slaughter price of the nation's lean-type pigs rose to 16.61 yuan/kg on December 6 and continued to maintain a slight upward trend after entering this week. December 7 rose to 16.7 yuan / kg, December 9 fell slightly to 16.61 yuan / kg, then continued to rise to 12 and 13 to 16.77 yuan / kg. The clarion call for the price of pigs to start rising before the Spring Festival starting on November 19 has now continued to rise for nearly a month and has risen from 16 yuan/kg to the current level of nearly 16.8 yuan/kg. The rise is relatively flat.

Feng Yonghui: From the winter solstice to the Spring Festival, the price of pigs will go out of the vicious circle of rising and falling in the peak season of the past two years, and will continue to rise slightly.

As we all know, the seasonal peak season of pork consumption is usually before and after the winter solstice to the Spring Festival every year. First, the bacon is generally produced in various parts of the south, followed by the pigs in the north. North and South have successively supported the busy season of pork consumption, with large consumption and concentration. Therefore, for a long time in the past, farmers had the habit of arranging fat pigs to be slaughtered during this period. Due to the large amount of consumption, pig prices seldom appeared even if they were slaughtered. This law is very regular before 2012, and it is very rare for the price of pigs to fall during the winter solstice to the Spring Festival.

However, since the end of 2012 from the winter solstice to the Spring Festival season, the price of pigs rose to nearly 9 yuan/kg. In the winter solstice of 2013 and the winter solstice of 2014, the price of pigs in the peak season of the two consecutive years not only did not increase, but also fell sharply. The main reason is that in 2013 and 2014, the pig industry was overcapacity for two years. The pigs slaughtered before and after the winter solstice were all born in summer, and the survival rate was very high. As a result, the volume of slaughter was very large and concentrated when the demand peak season arrived. At the same time, the eight provisions after the 18th National Congress largely suppressed pork consumption before the Spring Festival, which led to a certain degree of shrinking demand. The substantial increase in supply and the shrinking demand are the main reasons that caused the price of pigs not only to rise but also fall from the winter solstice to the Spring Festival in 2013 and 2014.

From the current winter solstice in 2015, the majority of pig farmers are very worried that the fall in the peak season for two consecutive years will not be repeated this year. We believe that it is not advisable to blindly believe in the laws and to adopt laws of law. However, in order to analyze specific issues, the reasons why the peak seasons of 2013 and 2014 did not rise or fall have been formed. How are these factors in this year?

Obviously, the amount of pigs slaughtered from the winter solstice to the Spring Festival in 2015 cannot be compared with 2013 and 2014. The fundamentals of the industry in 2013 and 2014 were overcapacity, and by the beginning of 2015, the elimination of excess capacity had been completed. Now that production capacity has continued to decline, there has been a certain gap between supply and demand. In this case, the price of pigs is unlikely to fall as in 2013 and 2014. The increase is positive, but it must not be too optimistic. The current economic situation is very sluggish. Terminal consumption is not good. Therefore, slaughter companies do not dare to raise the price of meat easily. Most slaughter companies do not dare to stockpile stocks easily. Generally, they need to set production, and the purchase volume is determined based on the end-user consumption. Slaughter. This will largely inhibit the increase in the price of pigs. Therefore, our viewpoint is still analyzed. During the winter solstice to the Spring Festival this year, the overall price of pigs kept a steady and slight upward trend. The price of 17 yuan/kg has already reached the expectation, and it must not be excessive.